GBPUSD - Take the Easy one trade

Another trade that bagged some nice pips.

GBPUSD 1HR Charts

Some rough action coming up.

Riding the wave

Some time it just works.

And there is a quote that kinda summaries how one should approach trading:

"Take the EASY ones, And dont't do anything STUPID in the meantime" ; How so true.

The chart (EURUSD 3Min) above shows the indicators I use, which baselines against Linear Regression on the base currency. Looks easy ones it has all happened right... HOW MUCH of it would you have got.

Back on track once again...

Forex Trading is indeed addictive.

Can't seem to get enough of it.

I've gone through several cycles now, losing some, making some, losing more, making more, losing even more, and making back some more....  (the account balance looks like some fancy roller coaster ride) ... hahahaha

Now the true revelation is finally hitting me, I just got to focus on the part of "losing more" and reduce that to "losing some", and I think I'm on track to a pretty good long term plan to financial "freedom".

This is hard, real hard. Well who ever said it was going to be easy

Trade Journal: 22 Nov 2010

Entered 100K EURUSD SELL @ 1.3781 for Scalp.
Tight stop loss employed.

10M Chart show signs of short term resistance.
All other longer time frames still showing up.

Exit at 1.3770. Profit US$105 nett (Comms $5)
Risky trade overall.

UPDATE: Should have stayed in the trade a little longer. Already hit 1.3735 on Accucharts.

Would have got 40pip profit with 1.3740 (Original TP)

Updated chart.

Trade Journal: 19 Nov 2010

Decided to enter a Scalp. (Tight stop loss)

10MIN chart looked good for the scalp.
Sell 100K EURUSD at 1.36408,

Exit and Took Profit at 1.3629. Nett USD$110 (Comms $5)

Trade Journal: 16 Nov 2010

Entered Trade at 2116HRS (Did not pay attention to upcoming news at 2130HRS)

4HR Showing a turn for the up,10MIN showing up.
DAY chart is still down, and WEEK also showing down.

Decided to enter to scalp for pips.

Trade: BUY 200K EURUSD @ 1.3617
2 mins later, EURUSD spiked a little (probably in anticipation of the news) and exited trade for 17pip profit.

Total Profit - USD$343 (comm $10)
Overall OK trade, was in for the scalp.

Trade Journal: 9 Nov 2010

19:47HRS - Enter EURUSD SELL 200K @ 1.3941

Based on indicators.
1HR was up, 4 HR still down strong.
10 Min also up, but longer term EMA was down.

20:05HRS - Enter EURUSD SELL 200K @ 1.3965

Same reasons as above.
10M chart shows price hitting 377 EMA (Strong short term resistance on first hit)

Total SELL 400K @ 1.3953 (avg price)
Stop 1.4005 (52 pips), Limit 1.3900 (53pips)

21:01 HRS - CLOSE 50K at 1.3950
21:07 HRS - CLOSE 350K at 1.3947

Total Profit - Nett USD$210 (Comms was $23)

Summary; Good Entry, Poor exit, too quick to exit. 2130 bar showed a low of 1.3912.
Overall poor trade. Not focused. (Kids running around ;P )

UPDATE: EURUSD went to 1.3735 next morning (10th Nov), wow 200 pips from entry. Poor Exit definitely.

Setting up your rules! Discipline 101

The thing about trading the markets is that you will NEVER know which direction the market will move. You've done your home work, you've calculated your probabilities, you anticipate and get your instincts going, you enter a trade.

- BANG! - ; things don't go the way you anticipated. Now this is where it can get really easy or really hard, and based on my previous round of losses (BIG!!!) things got hard and way too stressful.

We really need to keep it simple, easy and straight forward.

Set rules up! No MATTER what!

Stick to your rules! No MATTER what!

And I think things might just work out better.

That dreaded feeling

I'm back posting. The drive this time is that I've yet again made some grave mistake.

My trades was unfounded. And when things turned bad... instead of cutting my losses, I let it get worse. My trading account had almost doubled when I decided to let it self destruct.

I had shorted the EURUSD when there was strength with the buyers. I let my puny brain and big ego take over my decision making. And when I look back I really laugh, and let the thought sink through me.. Yeah. I deserved it.

In a matter of days, I've lost what took me more than a few years to build up. Yes. I can't imagine I did that to myself. The tally... almost USD$13,000 {poooffff, gone up in smoke} .. yup... that's quite a bit of money.

Now, I'm thinking to myself... do I shake it off and start again...
.... Yeah... why not, I've already invested so much time in this to let it go to waste.

Malcolm Gladwell did mention that success comes with effort and persistence. 10,000hrs at least to be exact. Here's a link to an extract -> 10,000 Hrs

Charts! Charts... even more Charts

Don't we all love charts!

Here's a screen cap from my Trading Rig.
I'm using Accucharts, and its pretty good.
I normally don't watch so many FX pairs, but I'll switch over to this just to get a feel of what's going on. My main LOVE right now is still the EURUSD, which is not featured in this screencap.. Hee hee...

Trading Rig for 2010

My Trading Rig for 2010.

Dual 24" at 1900x1200 each.
And the 20" at 1680x1050 on the Mac

Homing in on 2010

This blog in the past years have been a way for me to express my interest in the Financial markets. Through the years, I've become more mature in my thinking, as well being emotionally and psychologically stronger.

My main USD based trading account is now up 40%, but I also got a smaller USD retail Forex account that never quite recovered from some silly & disastrous trading.

The question I pose myself is: "How am I going to take this to the next level?"
I guess, its about constant learning, and reflecting on what I really want out of this.

Other priorities in life often take you away from what you feel is right for you, so the blog serves as a reminder for me not to give up pursuing what I think is right for me, at least this is something I know I can work on even in the "twilight" years.....

STI - The EMA cross

A friend, was just pinging me on what my thoughts were on the STI (Straits Times Index, Singapore), haven't done much analysis, but a point to note that, a 55day EMA cross with the 100 and 200 EMAs could be a sign of some upside movement.

Why 55? Its a fibonacci number.. instead of using 50.. they're pretty close actually.

However saying this, I would like the index to test the 2150-2200 support. And if that doesn't break when tested, we could see some up swing. But right now, we don't know how far this thing would go... just have to let time ride it out... and wait for the test on the 200EMA line.


Right now, those that have already got positions in the market, should just continue to ride I guess... but those considering new positions should hold and wait for the pull back (if it comes...)

Going downhill

Haha...thinking back, my activity of posting on this blog was very closely pegged against the financial markets - going down down down....

I've taken on a new job, gonna have to focus my energy there for a while in the months to come. I hope I can find some energy to go back to some options trading. What I've learnt from Forex trading are valuable lessons in patience and persistence, although I haven't been as successful as I hoped to be, I'm taking it as a part of life's journey, going through with something with that much passion and hoping for the break to come, well.... I'm still hoping....

Let me see, I guess its been almost 4 yrs since starting on Forex. The question beckons; "How do you keep going at it successfully for years and years to come and make a living out of it?" Well asking myself this question has lead me to believe that, you still need to invest your profits wisely, and create a passive income that can sustain the lifestyle you want, I can't imagine still trading the market 20-30 years down the road.

For "newbies" wanting to strike "oil" in the FX markets ... all I can say is ... GOOD LUCK. Not that its not possible, but once the reality sets in... Ha! Time to wake up and smell the coffee...

Back to the longer term

Ok Ok... I'm throwing myself back to looking at the 1H charts for my Forex Trading.
Looking at anything shorter than that time frame will bleed you if you are not focused.

Just finished reading "Adventures of a Currency Trader" by Rob Booker for the second time now.

I think there are definitely parts of the character that still in everyone trying to have a go at this game.

Well, I'm still working hard and trying to make the best effort to try succeed in this brutal market.

I will not give up... Wish me luck...

Wow.. it's been a while since I last posted

Ok, just to get things into my perspective of the US markets.
We'll I not going to add on and say that we're going to experience volatility and stuff, the experts with the extensive credentials are already doing that.

I'm just gonna get down to the basics, and post the "obvious".
Hopefully pictures live up to their reputation of speaking a thousand words.
Here it goes.

Here, I've drawn the resistance level hit on the 55EMA (Day) for the Dow Jones Index.

Expect the level to be tested again, and the overall trend is changing to move downwards...






This is the SPY (S&P 500).
Notice the similar patterns.

Price faced an immediate resistance at the 55EMA. Price 0.03 cents from the line.

Movement would be contained on the upside and have to test that level again, or we're going to see a period of downward/hovering.

Ok that's all for now. I'm going to work on one for the STI. And let's see how things move from here on. A recession in the US is pending according to some experts, while others have a more "conservative" outlook... we'll see.. we'll see.

2008.. What will the new year bring

Wrapping up 2007.. has been a good year for me...

But it certainly brought a lot of "excitement" to the equity markets.

Well... I do have a couple of New Years resolution.

And giving Forex a real shot would certainly be one of the things on the top of my list.

It'll be interesting to see what will happen to the US economy.

And how the other emerging markets will push forward.

To me, if there is growth in the World Economy... then something must give.

I guess depleting the resource of our mother earth seems like the compromise everybody seems to have to live with.

Ok.. so 2007 to me has been interesting, some doors are closing for me, but then, some new ones are opening. Getting out of the comfort zone, and moving to new, "greener" pastures seems to be my calling......

Cheers to all, and Happy New Year.

It's been a while

Have been really busy with Forex Trading.
It's a brutal market, and its never easy.
I'm seeking consistency, and I know I'll get there.
It's not something that'll happen in the short term.
FX Trading is like a business, and you've have to be focus, watch your cash flow and overheads. (In a different kind of way)

To me, it's a fine line between Greatness and Failure.
For me, threading this line is perhaps some form of destiny.
Only time will tell if I emerge victorious.

Options Expired

Ok, made a mistake on CAT. Didn't realise that Earnings report was due on Options expiry day. Well the figures came out and the rest is history, I closed my options at a loss before it decided to do even more damage.

Overall, still managed to walk away with a small profit with the other 4 counters expiring worthless, that not bad at all considering the Dow took a 366 point hit on 19th Oct, also being the 20th Anniversary of the 1987 crash.

So basically, I went into the options month not realizing there was going to be a couple of things working against me, well it also proved that with some calculated risk, you can still walk away with a profit.

Will start working on Oct Options next week or so. That has been the strategy that works for me, so let's stick with it.

BACK to Options Trading

Yes, I've made my journey back to Options trading, since it has done quite well for me.
I'm still spending loads of time on Forex Trading, but I figured I could take some time to research on a couple of counters, and do some quick credit spreads without having to constantly watch it.
Just let the time decay factor do its job.

I did 5 counters last night, nett credit received is $276, maximum loss is 4,224. Or 6.53% Return on risk. Not bad considering the options expire next week. And most of the strike prices being at least 10% Out of the money.

It's been a while

Yup, I've been busy working on a new Trading indicators. Trades for September are far and few, but profitable overall thou :) Gonna continue to work on the new indicators, and sometimes it better to watch it then to trade it.

Its been said that a typical Retail Forex account typically closes (due to blowups or other similar reasons) anytime from less than one year to just slight more than a year. Not exactly the nicest thing to hear being in this business.

Guess, the upcoming news from the Fed, and the recent turmoil on the UK Banks and the followup actions are going to move the market a bit. Equities market will experience volatility, along with the currencies, could be a true test of the folks with staying power. After all aren't all economies biased for going up, which economy ever says, "Hey, we want to the worst!"

Cheers, check back in soon.

FX Trade Report for August

Ok the month is up.

Made about 74 trades in total. (Which is about US$350 worth in commissions)
Nett trades are in positive territory chalking in 10,600 Yen (Yes miserly). Had some bad trades in between, and managed to pull back a bit, but still a very difficult time to trade. So Account is still up, and will have to continue to have P3 -> Patience,Perseverance & Practice

Right now I'm 100% focus on the USD/JPY pair, its been treating me okay. And its trading in a very critical range right now, as a break in either direction could set the trend for the next leg.

On 4,2 and 1 H charts, I've got the 5EMA and 12EMA trading ABOVE the 55EMA. But the gap between the MAs are closing in, means that a cross or a rebound of the 55 could signal the begining of a move.

Well, lets see how September turns out, I plan to be around FX for quite a while so gonna take it easy, and continue to rake in the profits.

August so far

Well, we all know what's happening in the US Equities market, and the somewhat domino effect on the Asian markets. With the Fed's cut on the discount rate to release some pressure from the bears attacking the market, we'd have to see if that holds, noting that fundamentals of the economy have not changed, and the sub-prime problems will not just GO AWAY.

My FX trades for August have been disappointing so far. Although in the last week, the attack of the Dollar from the Yen made it profitable for many of the short term "Trend" traders. Net trades are still profitable but only JUST. However taking commissions into consideration, it's a nett loss for far. But there's still time to pull back a bit, just have to re-focus and go get some pips.

My Trading Rig

Just thought I post a picture of my setup just for the fun of it.
A laptop 15.4" running at 1440x900
And my MacMini with a 20" running at 1680x1050

Cheers!

FX Trades for rest of July - cont'd report

Here's a glimpse of my trades for 2nd half of July.
It wasn't a fantastic 2 weeks, made quite a blunder on the GBP/JPY. Managed to recover with more trades on USD/JPY.
Overall profit targets are still in check (116K Yen), but I've got to reduce the number of my trades (comms is eroding my profits), and I have to admit I got too impatient on a couple trades, and paid the price of course, and in some cases when I left my trade overnight; 20pip gains turn into small losses.

But can't complain having a positive balance in a rather volatile trading week.
The strategy I'm using works overall, with more than 75% winning trades, just got to keep disciplined and practice money management of the losses.

USD/JPY - Low 118 area tested twice already

Just as updates, managed to get out of my 120 Long (with a small profit) from my last posting before UJ started going downhill and testing the nice 118 round number.

I must admit I did not catch any of the action on the big move down.
Again, it has been a tough time to trade thereafter, and have had made several wrong judgments and sometimes staying too long in a trade in having a possible "breakout" view in a rather rangy period. Overall, no major mistakes, and account is still very healthy. (About 7% up from June)
Could have done better, but I guess there will be trades that don't go your way, and it always gets progressively harder to keep winning trades.

Ok, looking forward to August, let's see what's in store for us.

USD/JPY confluence of numbers

We're definitely at some juncture here on UJ.
Weekly 50% Fibo retrace for UJ is at 119.75.
200EMA/SMA on the Daily also point to the 120-119.70 level.
Several Daily & H4 down-move fib extensions (1.382, 1.618) point to 120 area as well.

I think there should be some action in the next few days.

GBP/JPY is now in the mid 246 area. It's a monster I tell you.
Especially when Cable (GU) is making a retrace, and UJ heading south.

Ttime to take a stand, I did a long at 120 (UJ) with a small position to test things out. Can afford the drawdown and ready to take the loss.

Taking a bump on GBP/JPY

Ok, just got out on a poor Long position on GBP/JPY. Made some small recoveries with a couple more trades, but overall took a loss, and hit about -2% of my account.

Decided to reverse my position, I'm now SHORT on GBP/JPY, and lets see if the Price Action takes it to the low 248 level. And continue to work on my view of some weakness in USD/JPY.

Let's see which direction decides to show it's cards.

Not being in a trade is in itself a position

Have NOT been in my fav JPY crosses since last Friday. The signals that I take are indeed contradicting and it was a tough time to trade, although not impossible.

My overview is still some weakness in USD/JPY particularly from a Technical Analysis standpoint. I did take a SHORT today, and came out with a small small profit.

GBP/JPY is rather different becoz of the move on the GBP/USD (which I believe is at a level not seen since the 79-80.. go figure)

Preparing the full report for FX

Ok... found some time to work on a DBase to track my trades. Still not perfect but will have to do for now. Interactive Brokers doesn't give very good reports specifically for FX trades.

In Summary
June - Up more than 60K Yen (I'm still trying to trace back a bit more, coz I remember having a net of about $USD560 posted)
July - Up 118K Yen ~ USD$960 at current exch rate (Week ending Jul 12th so far)

Looking good I must say. Stay tuned in....

Tracker on Singapore - EWS

Changing my strategy to go a bit more aggressive. Managed to close EWS at yesterdays high of 14.15 (in at 13.55) or a 4.4% gain. Not too bad, there were some swings in between.

I'm now in some Long positions on USD/JPY pair. Not exactly to be the best spot to be in right now. But, I've secured a small profit for half my positions, and looking to take some small risk on buying on the dips and sell at the Fibo retracements going down to lock in a bit more profits for my overall Long positions.

Market conditions, and price action dictates the current movements, just have to hang in there.
Worst case scenario would be to sit back and collect some $$$ from the interest swaps.

Check back soon.