STI - The EMA cross

A friend, was just pinging me on what my thoughts were on the STI (Straits Times Index, Singapore), haven't done much analysis, but a point to note that, a 55day EMA cross with the 100 and 200 EMAs could be a sign of some upside movement.

Why 55? Its a fibonacci number.. instead of using 50.. they're pretty close actually.

However saying this, I would like the index to test the 2150-2200 support. And if that doesn't break when tested, we could see some up swing. But right now, we don't know how far this thing would go... just have to let time ride it out... and wait for the test on the 200EMA line.


Right now, those that have already got positions in the market, should just continue to ride I guess... but those considering new positions should hold and wait for the pull back (if it comes...)

Going downhill

Haha...thinking back, my activity of posting on this blog was very closely pegged against the financial markets - going down down down....

I've taken on a new job, gonna have to focus my energy there for a while in the months to come. I hope I can find some energy to go back to some options trading. What I've learnt from Forex trading are valuable lessons in patience and persistence, although I haven't been as successful as I hoped to be, I'm taking it as a part of life's journey, going through with something with that much passion and hoping for the break to come, well.... I'm still hoping....

Let me see, I guess its been almost 4 yrs since starting on Forex. The question beckons; "How do you keep going at it successfully for years and years to come and make a living out of it?" Well asking myself this question has lead me to believe that, you still need to invest your profits wisely, and create a passive income that can sustain the lifestyle you want, I can't imagine still trading the market 20-30 years down the road.

For "newbies" wanting to strike "oil" in the FX markets ... all I can say is ... GOOD LUCK. Not that its not possible, but once the reality sets in... Ha! Time to wake up and smell the coffee...

Back to the longer term

Ok Ok... I'm throwing myself back to looking at the 1H charts for my Forex Trading.
Looking at anything shorter than that time frame will bleed you if you are not focused.

Just finished reading "Adventures of a Currency Trader" by Rob Booker for the second time now.

I think there are definitely parts of the character that still in everyone trying to have a go at this game.

Well, I'm still working hard and trying to make the best effort to try succeed in this brutal market.

I will not give up... Wish me luck...

Wow.. it's been a while since I last posted

Ok, just to get things into my perspective of the US markets.
We'll I not going to add on and say that we're going to experience volatility and stuff, the experts with the extensive credentials are already doing that.

I'm just gonna get down to the basics, and post the "obvious".
Hopefully pictures live up to their reputation of speaking a thousand words.
Here it goes.

Here, I've drawn the resistance level hit on the 55EMA (Day) for the Dow Jones Index.

Expect the level to be tested again, and the overall trend is changing to move downwards...






This is the SPY (S&P 500).
Notice the similar patterns.

Price faced an immediate resistance at the 55EMA. Price 0.03 cents from the line.

Movement would be contained on the upside and have to test that level again, or we're going to see a period of downward/hovering.

Ok that's all for now. I'm going to work on one for the STI. And let's see how things move from here on. A recession in the US is pending according to some experts, while others have a more "conservative" outlook... we'll see.. we'll see.

2008.. What will the new year bring

Wrapping up 2007.. has been a good year for me...

But it certainly brought a lot of "excitement" to the equity markets.

Well... I do have a couple of New Years resolution.

And giving Forex a real shot would certainly be one of the things on the top of my list.

It'll be interesting to see what will happen to the US economy.

And how the other emerging markets will push forward.

To me, if there is growth in the World Economy... then something must give.

I guess depleting the resource of our mother earth seems like the compromise everybody seems to have to live with.

Ok.. so 2007 to me has been interesting, some doors are closing for me, but then, some new ones are opening. Getting out of the comfort zone, and moving to new, "greener" pastures seems to be my calling......

Cheers to all, and Happy New Year.

It's been a while

Have been really busy with Forex Trading.
It's a brutal market, and its never easy.
I'm seeking consistency, and I know I'll get there.
It's not something that'll happen in the short term.
FX Trading is like a business, and you've have to be focus, watch your cash flow and overheads. (In a different kind of way)

To me, it's a fine line between Greatness and Failure.
For me, threading this line is perhaps some form of destiny.
Only time will tell if I emerge victorious.

Options Expired

Ok, made a mistake on CAT. Didn't realise that Earnings report was due on Options expiry day. Well the figures came out and the rest is history, I closed my options at a loss before it decided to do even more damage.

Overall, still managed to walk away with a small profit with the other 4 counters expiring worthless, that not bad at all considering the Dow took a 366 point hit on 19th Oct, also being the 20th Anniversary of the 1987 crash.

So basically, I went into the options month not realizing there was going to be a couple of things working against me, well it also proved that with some calculated risk, you can still walk away with a profit.

Will start working on Oct Options next week or so. That has been the strategy that works for me, so let's stick with it.

BACK to Options Trading

Yes, I've made my journey back to Options trading, since it has done quite well for me.
I'm still spending loads of time on Forex Trading, but I figured I could take some time to research on a couple of counters, and do some quick credit spreads without having to constantly watch it.
Just let the time decay factor do its job.

I did 5 counters last night, nett credit received is $276, maximum loss is 4,224. Or 6.53% Return on risk. Not bad considering the options expire next week. And most of the strike prices being at least 10% Out of the money.

It's been a while

Yup, I've been busy working on a new Trading indicators. Trades for September are far and few, but profitable overall thou :) Gonna continue to work on the new indicators, and sometimes it better to watch it then to trade it.

Its been said that a typical Retail Forex account typically closes (due to blowups or other similar reasons) anytime from less than one year to just slight more than a year. Not exactly the nicest thing to hear being in this business.

Guess, the upcoming news from the Fed, and the recent turmoil on the UK Banks and the followup actions are going to move the market a bit. Equities market will experience volatility, along with the currencies, could be a true test of the folks with staying power. After all aren't all economies biased for going up, which economy ever says, "Hey, we want to the worst!"

Cheers, check back in soon.

FX Trade Report for August

Ok the month is up.

Made about 74 trades in total. (Which is about US$350 worth in commissions)
Nett trades are in positive territory chalking in 10,600 Yen (Yes miserly). Had some bad trades in between, and managed to pull back a bit, but still a very difficult time to trade. So Account is still up, and will have to continue to have P3 -> Patience,Perseverance & Practice

Right now I'm 100% focus on the USD/JPY pair, its been treating me okay. And its trading in a very critical range right now, as a break in either direction could set the trend for the next leg.

On 4,2 and 1 H charts, I've got the 5EMA and 12EMA trading ABOVE the 55EMA. But the gap between the MAs are closing in, means that a cross or a rebound of the 55 could signal the begining of a move.

Well, lets see how September turns out, I plan to be around FX for quite a while so gonna take it easy, and continue to rake in the profits.

August so far

Well, we all know what's happening in the US Equities market, and the somewhat domino effect on the Asian markets. With the Fed's cut on the discount rate to release some pressure from the bears attacking the market, we'd have to see if that holds, noting that fundamentals of the economy have not changed, and the sub-prime problems will not just GO AWAY.

My FX trades for August have been disappointing so far. Although in the last week, the attack of the Dollar from the Yen made it profitable for many of the short term "Trend" traders. Net trades are still profitable but only JUST. However taking commissions into consideration, it's a nett loss for far. But there's still time to pull back a bit, just have to re-focus and go get some pips.

My Trading Rig

Just thought I post a picture of my setup just for the fun of it.
A laptop 15.4" running at 1440x900
And my MacMini with a 20" running at 1680x1050

Cheers!

FX Trades for rest of July - cont'd report

Here's a glimpse of my trades for 2nd half of July.
It wasn't a fantastic 2 weeks, made quite a blunder on the GBP/JPY. Managed to recover with more trades on USD/JPY.
Overall profit targets are still in check (116K Yen), but I've got to reduce the number of my trades (comms is eroding my profits), and I have to admit I got too impatient on a couple trades, and paid the price of course, and in some cases when I left my trade overnight; 20pip gains turn into small losses.

But can't complain having a positive balance in a rather volatile trading week.
The strategy I'm using works overall, with more than 75% winning trades, just got to keep disciplined and practice money management of the losses.

USD/JPY - Low 118 area tested twice already

Just as updates, managed to get out of my 120 Long (with a small profit) from my last posting before UJ started going downhill and testing the nice 118 round number.

I must admit I did not catch any of the action on the big move down.
Again, it has been a tough time to trade thereafter, and have had made several wrong judgments and sometimes staying too long in a trade in having a possible "breakout" view in a rather rangy period. Overall, no major mistakes, and account is still very healthy. (About 7% up from June)
Could have done better, but I guess there will be trades that don't go your way, and it always gets progressively harder to keep winning trades.

Ok, looking forward to August, let's see what's in store for us.

USD/JPY confluence of numbers

We're definitely at some juncture here on UJ.
Weekly 50% Fibo retrace for UJ is at 119.75.
200EMA/SMA on the Daily also point to the 120-119.70 level.
Several Daily & H4 down-move fib extensions (1.382, 1.618) point to 120 area as well.

I think there should be some action in the next few days.

GBP/JPY is now in the mid 246 area. It's a monster I tell you.
Especially when Cable (GU) is making a retrace, and UJ heading south.

Ttime to take a stand, I did a long at 120 (UJ) with a small position to test things out. Can afford the drawdown and ready to take the loss.

Taking a bump on GBP/JPY

Ok, just got out on a poor Long position on GBP/JPY. Made some small recoveries with a couple more trades, but overall took a loss, and hit about -2% of my account.

Decided to reverse my position, I'm now SHORT on GBP/JPY, and lets see if the Price Action takes it to the low 248 level. And continue to work on my view of some weakness in USD/JPY.

Let's see which direction decides to show it's cards.

Not being in a trade is in itself a position

Have NOT been in my fav JPY crosses since last Friday. The signals that I take are indeed contradicting and it was a tough time to trade, although not impossible.

My overview is still some weakness in USD/JPY particularly from a Technical Analysis standpoint. I did take a SHORT today, and came out with a small small profit.

GBP/JPY is rather different becoz of the move on the GBP/USD (which I believe is at a level not seen since the 79-80.. go figure)

Preparing the full report for FX

Ok... found some time to work on a DBase to track my trades. Still not perfect but will have to do for now. Interactive Brokers doesn't give very good reports specifically for FX trades.

In Summary
June - Up more than 60K Yen (I'm still trying to trace back a bit more, coz I remember having a net of about $USD560 posted)
July - Up 118K Yen ~ USD$960 at current exch rate (Week ending Jul 12th so far)

Looking good I must say. Stay tuned in....

Tracker on Singapore - EWS

Changing my strategy to go a bit more aggressive. Managed to close EWS at yesterdays high of 14.15 (in at 13.55) or a 4.4% gain. Not too bad, there were some swings in between.

I'm now in some Long positions on USD/JPY pair. Not exactly to be the best spot to be in right now. But, I've secured a small profit for half my positions, and looking to take some small risk on buying on the dips and sell at the Fibo retracements going down to lock in a bit more profits for my overall Long positions.

Market conditions, and price action dictates the current movements, just have to hang in there.
Worst case scenario would be to sit back and collect some $$$ from the interest swaps.

Check back soon.

4th of July has been good to me

Exactly! With my recent Forex trades for 4th-5th July, I managed to push through a 2.5% (yes 2 days worth of trade) gain on my account. Well sometimes things do go your way (other times you tell yourself the market is having a grudge against you :P), I did managed to pick some Short-term highs to take profit, and some nice (close-to) bottoms to go Long. Oh.. I'm still mostly on USD/JPY, GBP/JPY ya!

Well that being said, its still early in the month, and let's see what the rest of it bring me. Wish me luck. Cheers!

Out on SPY, Forex up again

Closed up my SPY 150 PUT Option expiring 29thJun. Strategy went wrong during a very busy week for economic data. My CALL @ 156 is still open and will leave it for DEAD..Heh Heh...

Went in for more Forex trades on the USD/JPY. Could have stretch my profits a bit more, but wanted to stay on the conservative side during this "turbulent" times.
Forex positions on the JPY crosses are now 200+ pips in the BLACK! :)

FX - The YEN trades

Just recently did a close on my USD/JPY positions.
As the US posted lacklustre housing news, and with the continued concerns on the unwinding of the carry trades. The obvious thing for me to do was to take profit on the trades I had brought over from the weekend. I took a 1.382/1.618 Fib signal on the M15, at about 10am SG time (26th Jun) and managed to get out at 123.91. Before the pair went downhill.

I'm now clean and will look for entries on the dips to continue to stay long on the JPY crosses.
Current trades from beginning of the month are still up about 180pips in total. (Based on 25K lots)

Cheers!

In on SPY- Expiry 29th June

The market is certainly getting volatile, and for this reason, I'm doing a short term Option Strangle on the SPY.

Market opened rather flat for the 1st Hr or so, so I queued for a Strangle with Sell PUT at 150 and a Sell CALL at 156. With SPY hovering at 153 zone.

Went to bed, and found out that the market took a bit of a tumble, and hence my trades got done.Didn't expect a big drop, market sentiments seems to side the increase in yields in bonds, and with some profit taking. Let's see how the market reacts with the next few days.

While on this, I've also done some Forex trading, especially on the GBP/JPY. As the carry trades continue to be the talk of the town, I did make a few pips from this pair (on Long positions), and account is up about 26,000 (yen) ~ 200USD. With some interest earned on the GBP with the swaps, it seems profitable for now!

Ok.. I'm out!

Jun 15th Options Expiry

Done. Not a nice period to be in, but hey I survived it taking a bit of a loss but I guess that's the nature of doing things.

The 2 major losses, kinda wiped out any other gains. And MER actually did a bit of a pull back nicely to sit right above the Strike price. And I did a bit of manual sell off to the lower Put positions to kinda cover a bit of the Comm expenditures.

Overall, I took a $300 Loss for this round, but made up for it with another Call Position on CVA. Which is riding on a $400 unrealised gain.

Ok. Stand by for the coming months, I think we should experience greater volatility as minor blips and corrections are in the way.

Limit the losses

Well, we all know what's happening on the market.

Pertaining to my trades.
JC Penny posted dropping profits, Steel Companies (NUE, STLD) are taking the hit, this is a tough time to be in trade.
Well, got to suck it up and cut the losses.

I've exited my JCP and STLD positions last night:

JCP Took nett loss of $440, STLD nett loss of $420.
Sold of USNA put option as a form of recovering of commission. (Yes, I'm taking a bit of a risk, but then again... its all about risk isn't it?)
Its a good thing commissions are low on InteractiveBrokers for Options trades at this lvl! Otherwise comms will just add to the red.

I'm still in on MER, although that's in the red as well, I'm thinking of keeping it for the longer term and do some sell Calls as a repair strategy.

Well, expiration in a couple of days, my other positions are still looking good. Which helps minimize the loss! In this market condition, and if not doing the Bear Vertical Put strategy, I'm sure the losses will be far far greater, and I'll still be in trade thinking; It'll go up, It'll go up.

Ok..Hang in there..

Marketwatch.com:
Dow drops 198 points on host of worries
Losses over three days near 400 points as pressured bonds increase yields, challenging stocks' attractiveness.

With losses on almost all stocks in position, Option trades are currently in the red 200USD.

Took a couple of bumps on the Forex positions as well. Looks like this is gonna be a tough month...

One more trade for 15th June

Managed to get JCP from a queue I entered last night.
This should really close off my positions for Jun Expiry.
Total premiums collected - USD$822 (15.87% Return on risk)
Let's check back soon.

Option Trade Expiring 15th June Round 3

Hmm.. Picked up another strong stock which gave enough premiums.

Managed to do a quick trade on USD/JPY, saw that the on the 1HR, at 121.60 was very close to the 200Ema line, so it did work for a reverse Fibo re-trace to 38.2%, and took a 15 pip profit.

This should be it for tonight and for the rest of Jun... unless I still see a couple more good ones to pick up by Tommorow or Wednesday.

Option Trade Expiring 15th June Round 2

STLD and MER seems like fundamentally strong companies. Even if the options get executed, I'd be picking up the stocks at good prices.

Total premiums collected so far: USD$316 (29th) + $296 (25th) = USD$612
Will be looking at a couple more positions to close of June expiry trades. Will spend more time on my forex trades thou.

Option Trades Expiring 15th June

Data for companies in the US markets are out. This is a eval time for investors, moreover with the heatup in China, I think we're in for a bumpy ride. But none the less, this is a good time to see if this strategy continue to work.

Anyway the market opened up, had some orders on queue, and this morning (US market closed down).. managed to get a couple of trades.

The strike prices for these trades are slightly out of the money. Will take a more cautious approach this month. Cheers

Options Expired for May trades

Held my breath for a bit!
Check out the performance on the spreadsheet. All trades took maximum profit.
Total for holding the options for 2 weeks! USD$1,340!


Market is really moving, and many are really not sure when the "bubble" will burst, for now lets keep it this way. Cheers..